Most of that growth comes from China, though a slight uptick is forecast for the United States as well. The overall vehicle sales of the proxy OEM are forecast to grow by 25 percent in the base case. Although global revenue development seems promising, a glimpse at the profitability reveals that without significant transformation OEMs will struggle remaining as profitable as today. We even forecast a decline for traditional business segments in EU5 and Japan, where these losses can only be compensated through growth in new business segments. China is expected to contribute the most to overall growth relative to the other markets in our study, which show only moderate or minor positive growth. The base case scenario assumes that the compound annual revenue growth rate of our proxy OEM remains stable at 3 percent between 20. In a more disruptive scenario, we can expect results to be even more drastic. The following results represent a “base case” relying on the trend assumptions most likely to occur and assuming the proxy OEM does not pursue significant corporate transformation. Key findings of the study for the markets Euro5, China, Japan and the United States: The future at stake With a time horizon until 2035, the study focuses on the global markets China, the US and Japan as well as the five largest EU markets Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain (Euro5). The study “Future of Automotive Sales and Aftersales” relies on various scenarios to examine how automotive megatrends like connectivity, alternative powertrains, car sharing and autonomous vehicles will affect revenues and profits in the sales and aftersales business. Should OEMs move into these innovative markets, leverage development efforts of third parties, forge alliances or perhaps even stay out of it entirely? With current trends potentially closing doors in the traditional automotive space, we can expect new business opportunities to arise in a reshaped mobility industry. How will market potential and customer behavior vary from region to region?.How much will electrification affect the highly profitable aftersales business?.Will OEMs hold their own against tech players in developing cutting-edge technologies and services?.Will OEMs be able to keep profitability at current levels in years to come?.These are just some of the challenging questions facing all stakeholders as they look to the future: Car sales and automotive aftermarket in 2035
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